Analysts: Strong Software Growth in July
Ahead of monthly U.S. sales data, analysts said year-on-year software sales could have increased as much as 44 percent in July.
Wedbush Morgan"s Michael Pachter expects July console software sales to increase by 44 percent to $605 million.
Pachter said, "We have consistently underestimated growth this year, and the comparison for July is a relatively modest 11 percent, so it is possible that July could again substantially exceed our expectations.
"In any case, we believe that the video game software sector remains highly recession-resistant."
Colin Sebastian with Lazard Capital Markets forecast a more conservative increase of 30-35 percent year-on-year.
"...We expect July to represent the 15th consecutive month of solid double-digit year-over-year growth with approximately 46 percent growth year-to-date."
Electronic Entertainment Design and Research expects a 43 percent software sales increase.
EEDAR"s Jesse Divnich added, "We do not expect software sales to slow down for the remainder of 2008 and maintain our current guidance of software sales being up almost 20% for 2008. We do, however, expect year-over-year comps to weaken as we approach the anniversaries of Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, Rock Band and Guitar Hero III."
The analysts said July software sales were likely led by NCAA Football 09 (EA, pictured), Final Fantasy IV DS (Square-Enix), Soul Calibur IV (Namco Bandai), Metal Gear Solid 4 (Konami), Guitar Hero products (Activision Blizzard), Wii Fit (Nintendo) and Civilization Revolution (Take-Two).
Hardware forecasts
Pachter expects the Wii to have led hardware sales in July with 650,000 sold versus 275,000 for Xbox 360 and 250,000 for PS3.
He said the recent $299 (from $349) clearance pricing for the 20GB Xbox 360 helped push sales of the Xbox 360, and called Wii supply "steady."
Sebastian said there is a "calm before the storm" in the hardware market, suggesting that Nintendo has begun building inventory as it prepares for a big holiday.
He added, "...We expect a number of meaningful hardware announcements this fall, likely to include price cuts on the Xbox 360 and enhancements to handheld systems from Sony (PSP) and Nintendo (DS)."
Divnich offered a full slate of hardware forecasts led by DS:
DS: 625,445
Wii: 612,545
Xbox 360: 325,488
PS3: 275,444
PSP: 235,447
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